TMG and election monitoring in 2011 – the swift response election monitoring approach in Nigeria

Since most sub-Saharan African countries gained flag independence, it has been very difficult to conduct less rancorous non-controversial and faultless election, through this they have denied their people of good governance and are yet to be seen to be taking, remarkable measures towards democratization that can move their people forward democratically to create a solid foundation for better life. 

While most of these African countries are dominated by poverty of ideas, they are further de-emphasized by debilitating electoral setbacks, however, there are few successful stories such as Liberia, Sierra-Leone and more recently Ghana that have re-affirmed their position as countries which best practices can be learnt to mould a successful nationhood, either in politics, economic management and electoral excellence.

In these countries of best examples, election observation has become a civic involvement of citizens in the political process and another fundamental duty apart from casting votes on election day, monitoring election in these countries is a part of the election process that has ensured that not only is the electoral process transparent, but reflect an outcome that makes the votes of the people count. It’s like the more elections are conducted, the more the observed flaws remain the same and so it appears to be with Nigeria electoral processes. 

The history of election observation in Nigeria started with the establishment of the Transition Monitoring Group on 10th, August 1998 to engage the General Abdulsalam Abubakar military transition to civil rule program and build the confidence of the populace in the electoral process. The main objective of the coalition was to monitor the elections to ensure a free space for political participation, inclusive electoral process so as to see the end of military rule and usher in a civilian regime.

Ever since, TMG has become a coalition of several reputable human rights and pro-democracy organizations, engaged in electoral reform, election observation and promoting good governance. It observed elections in 1999, 2003, and 2007 in a non-partisan and professional ways which had earned it global recognition and respect as the largest election observation group in Nigeria. The TMG subscribes to and complies with the code of conduct for election observation for domestic and international observers as agreed. 

In recognition of its flagship of election monitoring in Nigeria, it was honoured with the International Award of National Endowment for Democracy (NED) in 1999 for its efforts in monitoring the Presidential election held in Nigeria on 27th, February 1999 which was a milestone in the history of Africa’s most populous country.

By and large, the importance attached to credible election had made the TMG to be dedicated to directing the behavior of political actors to best practices, make politicians to conform with international norms in the conduct of elections, assist in the protection of the rights of citizens to participate in the electoral process, expose weak practices reduce electoral frauds, election manipulations and build trust that confers legitimacy.

Nation state at an international convention on election observation held at the United Nations in New York, October 27, 2005. TMG has therefore established its integrity in national and international election observations through respect for sovereignty of Nation and International human rights. Respect the laws of the country; respect the integrity of the international by election observation mission.

Above all, it maintains strict political impartiality in all elections have never been found to obstruct election processes, provide appropriate identification, maintain accuracy of observation and professionalism in drawing conclusions.

In the course of its observation of elections, the TMG has acquired tremendous goodwill which was made possible by the patriotism and dedication of its well trained and informed observers who are true Change Agents that desire the best for their country.

TMG AND ELECTION OBSERVATION IN 2011

 As the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is aspiring towards full electronic voting process, monitoring the electoral process differently has become inevitable

Thinking of the 2011 elections as it is dangerously approaching, it is clear especially from the challenging experiences from past election that the strategies for monitoring the election processes must change including the tools of our observation in a way that it elevates our commitments to excellence. There is a new tool known worldwide as Swift Response Observation an equivalent of parallel votes tabulation which is a highly scientific method that allows observer team to independently tabulate election results from a reliable sample of polling stations based on statistical representation. The system has been tried and successful in a number of countries in the world. The idea started in Phillipines and has been used successfully in some African countries of Malawi, Zimbabwe, Sierra-Leone and lately Ghana. The significance of this new tool for observing elections is stretched if it becomes benefit of experience sharing from best practices in election observation across some African State. 

The outcome of swift response observation will compare with official results obtained from the same election, through a vital tool meant to underscore qualitative data gathering and analysis towards building public confidence in the electoral process and authenticating the arithmetical accuracy of the figures posted from each of the observed polling units.

It however requires the diligent participation, dedication, patriotism, maturity, selflessness and commitment to excellence of observers and observation project management. These qualitative benchmarks will be complimented with intensive trainings to bring up the selected observers to the standard required for a swift response observation to succeed.

FACTORS UNDERSCORING SWIFT RESPONSE OBSERVATION IN NIGERIA

 After monitoring elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007, several flaws were reported from the elections with concluding remarks that the peoples vote did not count. It is considered by the TMG that the 2011 election should be observed differently as the Nation makes another attempt to transit from one more civilian administration to another civilian administration towards further consolidation of Nigeria’s nascent democracy.

In 2007, Nigeria’s dangerously transited from one civilian government under the then President Olusegun Obasanjo to the civilian government of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua albeit vide an imperfect election which stood as the most flawed in the annals of election history in Nigeria.

The President Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua acknowledge the flaws in the elections during his inauguration speech in May 2007 and promised to inaugurate an election reforms committee which he later setup under the retired Justice Mohammed Uwais. The President interalia said:

“We acknowledge that our elections were not

perfect and had lapses and shortcomings.

However, we have well established legal

avenues of redress and I urge anyone

aggrieved to pursue them…..

 

“I also believe that our experiences

represent an opportunity to learn from

our mistakes. Accordingly, I will set up a

panel to examine the entire electoral process

with a view to effect reforms and ensuring

that we raise the quality and standards of

our general elections to meet international standards”. 

The above statement today remain relevant, because despite the deep flaws opened by the 2007 elections, nothings seems to have changed in subsequent re-run and bye-elections. politicians are yet to seize from inciting violence and ethnic hatred, inflame passions and raise emotions. In essence, the hope for credible election in 2011 especially when the following factors are considered may be sealed.

One, Government verdict in rejecting or watering down the Uwais led ERC commendation has become instructive sending an odious signal against expectations of Nigerians who consider the areas rejected by government as the core prerequisite for free and free elections.

In other ways, the electoral reform campaigns unfortunately have been reduced to issues of politics, power, ethnicity, tenure protection, instead of using the Uwais report as the reference document to charting a new course for electoral credibility in 2011.

Legislators who are the principal representatives branch of the country’s governing institutions and a forum by which Nigerian peoples concerns could be voiced in the governing of the country have refused to be true expression of the mandate of the people.

They have relegated their roles to enact laws, mediate differing constituency interests, and debate and establish policies and resource priorities that directly affect people’s lives. 

In the course of considering the electoral reform and given full effect to the Uwais report, Nigeria legislators have outwitted the electorate by hijacking the electoral process and elevating their personal views above that of their constituencies.

Unfortunately, the Nigerian electorates are still divided and polarized, refusing to resolve to be part of the solution processes to the problems and making the overriding consideration to be considered, the question of how to control the electoral process that would lead to building integrity into the 2011 election and beyond. 

It is against the above backdrops that the need for the introduction of the quick count or swift response observation system has become a priority innovation which time should be now. Why because it is a new process that underscore good relationship among stakeholders institution in the electoral process, unlike in the past. The interest of the country will be a major decider in forging such relation to move Nigerian forward. 

Already, the 2011 electioneering process have been kick-started with preparations for the Anambra February 2010 election which for some time now have been in the eye of the storm. The 2010 Anambra election will provide a trial electoral space for the political class to either perfect their art of deception or show their readiness to learn lessons from best practices, and provide a rare opportunity for Nigerians freely express their trust in the preferred candidates in 2011, and have their votes count.

SWIFT RESPONSE OBSERVATION (SRO)

Swift response election observation is a process of collecting information or data from observers deployed to observe election process and the way votes are counted and collated, recording such information and communicating their findings to centrally located centre established by the observation team. How it is done differently from normal domestic observation is in its quick and swift counting and dissemination of the result. “observation team collect these information from a scientific random selection of polling stations to derive a reliable projection of result”. 

Swift Response Observation system and normal domestic observation are one and the same system of observation except that one is quicker in response, statistically based while the other is manually transmitted. Observers will be deployed in the two approaches, but one is based on limited volunteer, unlike the ordinary domestic observation process, the swift response is scientific and tends to seek qualitative outcome than the figures. Swift response approach is not about mere figurative expression but about the processes presented on the basis of statistical sampling, enabling collection and swift analysis of collated information about the election day process.

Swift Response allows for effective election observation and ensures that the election process is efficient. In all fairness, it provides reliable information which authenticates effective and efficient performance of stakeholders roles in the election process and the bases for accessing that the process of election conform with prescribed election laws and could plan for future enhancement of quality. 

Furthermore, Swift Response System entails special coding of observers identity and the polling stations, the questions on the observer checklist, arrival at polling station, setup at polling station, voting process, counting and transmission through the use of the GSM technology into a specially established “observation” centre in Nigeria.

Before the election, preferably a week to it, a pre-election simulation exercise is carried out to ensure that everybody that will participate are ready and are able to communicate through their GSM from their various allotted polling stations to the National Observation Centre. 

In addition to the training of special observers for the rapid response system, a reference manual will be printed and handed over to observers for reference purpose in case the observer misses out on any related issue.

On election day, every appointed observer would be given the following materials to aid effective and efficient performance of their duties. 

a.         A valid I.D.

b.         Accreditation badge

c.         Observer Manual

d.         Rapid Response Observer Checklist

e.         Incident Report Form

f.          Pen and Observer bag

g.         Stipends for refreshment

h.         Umbrella or Cardigan

CONCLUSION

The TMG having reviewed the lessons learnt from the 2007 elections observation and benefiting from best practices across Africa and the world is seriously considering the details of what should be done in the 2011 elections to ensure that the outcome is not business as usual while underpinning its non-partisanship in the process.

TMG desire to turn out a better respected report of timely, accurate scientific and statistically friendly results of the election in 2011, but it is realized that the stake will be much higher than ever before as people have started to ask election observer teams especially the TMG what will be the key to ensuring that the next election will be conducted beyond reproach?  The answer lies in the readiness of all the stakeholders in the electoral processes the INEC, politicians, police, civil society and the media to play their roles well and build confidence in the electorate that the state resources will not be allowed to be wasted to campaign and that politicians will not resort to violence and voters intimidation while ensuring that political campaigns would be issue based.

In this regard, TMG has decided to work with INEC and other stakeholders to ensure an election that is conducted peacefully and which character is well captured and outcome respected and would therefore embark on preparations for observing the elections and the campaign process differently, in its genuine desire to introduce a new observation methodology that ensures that wholesale rigging and other election corruptions are eliminated. No doubt, the new process will demand transparency and accountability but citizens participation through building confidence in the public will be its utmost advantage.

Mashood Erubami
Chair
Transition Monitoring Group TMG)

8^th Floor, Labour House, Behind Federal Ministry of Finance
Central Business District, P.O. Box 11312, Abuja, Nigeria
Tel: 234(09) 6705240, 07025403819 E-mail: tmg_nig@yahoo.com tmgabuja@yahoo.com, tmg@tmgnigeria.org 
Website: http://www.tmgnigeria.org